This paper investigates the pass-through of external shocks, i.e. oil price shocks, exchange rate shocks, and non-oil import price shocks to euro area inflation at different stages of distribution (import prices, producer prices and consumer prices). The analysis is based on a VAR model that...

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area. Using a VAR framework it provides evidence on the magnitude and speed of the impact of exchange rate shocks on activity in all main euro area sectors and on activity and producer prices...

This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...

This paper explores the role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s by applying a VAR framework with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility in which oil supply and global demand shocks are identified. Our results show that both types of shock contributed substantially...

This paper explores whether the transmission mechanism between wages and prices in the euro area is affected by the growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation declined by less than was widely expected during the past...

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two composite leading indicators are carefully selected from...