setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the … methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for … to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Pier and …

Recent interest in "Risk Management"has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary … rules that are robust with respect to model uncertainty facing both the policymaker and private sector. We apply our … area and estimated measures of structured exogenous and parameter uncertainty for the exercise. We find that IFB rules with …

studies conducted in eleven countries to explore liquidity risk transmission. Among the main results is, first, that … explanatory power of the empirical model is higher for domestic lending than for international lending. Second, how liquidity risk … management across global banks can be important for liquidity risk transmission into lending. Fourth, there is substantial …

We address the question to what extent a central bank can de-risk its balance sheet by unconventional monetary policy … operations. To this end, we propose a novel risk measurement framework to empirically study the time-variation in central bank … generated beneficial risk spill-overs across monetary policy operations, causing overall risk to be nonlinear in exposures. Some …

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain ….5 deg;C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 deg;C to 6.9 deg;C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of … climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming …

This paper discusses the nature of the uncertainty faced by central banks and considers three approaches to dealing … with uncertainty(1) formal optimization models and robust rules based on such models; (2) informal rules like the Taylor …

contributions from country-specific uncertainty, region-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …

Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …