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Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061815

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

Baker, Scott R. - 2019

We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889473

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Baker, Scott R. - 2016

find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003270

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

Baker, Scott R. - 2014

data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729

Really Uncertain Business Cycles

Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065796

Skewed Business Cycles

Salgado, Sergio - 2019

Using firm-level panel data from the US Census Bureau and almost fifty other countries, we show that the skewness of the growth rates of employment, sales, and productivity is procyclical. In particular, during recessions, they display a large left tail of negative growth rates (and during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857736

Surveying Business Uncertainty

Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2021

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225152

The Impact of Covid-19 on Us Firms

Bloom, Nicholas; Fletcher, Robert; Yeh, Ethan - 2021

We use survey data on an opt-in panel of around 2,500 US small businesses to assess the impact of COVID-19. We find a significant negative sales impact that peaked in Quarter 2 of 2020, with an average loss of 29% in sales. The large negative impact masks significant heterogeneity, with over 40%...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248738

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment and productivity. Thus, second …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012751817

Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D

Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of Ramp;D to changes in business conditions - a quot;caution-effectquot; - making it more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012752019