This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980‐2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling...

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond...

The purpose of this paper is to explain deviations from PPP in an economy charaterived by a mononolistic competitive market structure in which pricing decisions incur costs. That lead producers to pre-set the price path for several periods. The paper derives an optimal pricing rule, including...