Showing 1 - 10 of 11
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run … significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further scrutiny using a rich …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776940
In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762886
prices, including the equity premia, risk-free rate and volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101822
We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100993
We use traded equity dividend strips from U.S., Europe, and Japan from 2004-2017 to study the slope of the term structure of equity dividend risk premia. In the data, a robust finding is that the term structure of dividend risk premia (growth rates) is positively (negatively) sloped in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889957
We use the forward-looking information from the US and global capital markets to estimate the economic impact of global warming, specifically, long-run temperature shifts. We find that global warming carries a positive risk premium that increases with the level of temperature and that has almost...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984763
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument is based on evidence from global capital markets which shows that the covariance between country equity returns and temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118834
We argue that the cointegrating relation between dividends and consumption, a measure of long run consumption risks, is a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks disappear, and the asset's beta is dominated by long run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776939
conditional volatility of income process. An important prediction of the model is that income volatility predicts future jumps … consumption volatility, but not by the changes in the consumption level. We show that the model can quantitatively capture these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221105