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Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls : The Trilemma in the Interwar Period

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2012

disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open … yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling with significant ramifications for today's world, if true but … empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755788

Stuck on Gold : Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard

Chernyshoff, Natalia - 2010

thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. A hard exchange-rate regime such as the gold standard might limit monetary … absorption in a world of real shocks and nominal stickiness. A simple model shows how a lack of flexibility can be discerned in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761895

Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare : Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades

Caliendo, Lorenzo - 2015

We show in a multi-sector, heterogeneous-firm trade model that the effect of tariffs on entry, especially in the presence of production linkages, can reverse the traditional positive optimal tariff argument. We then use a new tariff dataset, and apply it to a 189-country, 15-sector version of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010722

The Time for Austerity : Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Jordà, Òscar - 2013

After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565

Collateral Damage : Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War

Glick, Reuven - 2010

studies of World War I and World War II …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762386

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Jordà, Òscar - 2018

This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916914

After the Panic : Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade

Benguria, Felipe - 2019

Are financial crises a negative shock to demand or a negative shock to supply? This is a fundamental question for both macroeconomics researchers and those involved in real-time policymaking, and in both cases the question has become much more urgent in the aftermath of the recent financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871558

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence

O'Rourke, Kevin - 2019

Why did per capita income divergence occur so dramatically during the 19th century, rather than at the outset of the Industrial Revolution? How were some countries able to reverse this trend during the globalization of the late 20th century? To answer these questions, this paper develops a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872313

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Jordà, Òscar - 2016

In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This “financial hockey stick” coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely-noted return of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981095

International Monetary Relations : Taking Finance Seriously

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2017

changing demands for modern central bank interventions in the economy. Financial instability, followed by WWII, left a world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954933