We update tests of the credibility of the EMS exchange rate target zones. Our main methodological innovation is to use a survey of exchange rate forecasts, as well as interest differentials, in measuring exchange rate expectations. We investigate the hypothesis -- suggested by the apparent...

Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has been large estimates: Trade among members seems to double or triple, that is, to increase by...

In this paper we examine the international implications of monetary union in the European Community (EMU), and the associated international costs and benefits. We consider prospective changes in international institutions, the potential role of the ecu as an international currency, and the...