A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in … booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel …

uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty … measures. We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several … crisis. Specifically, we feed COVID-induced first-moment and uncertainty shocks into an estimated model of disaster effects …

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied … stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective … uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future GDP growth. Three results …