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tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082768
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run … significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further scrutiny using a rich …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776940
-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis in fundamentals while still permitting closed-form solutions for asset prices. The model not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151389
We propose a conditional measure of capital market integration that allows us to characterize both the cross-section and time-series of expected returns in developed and emerging markets. Our measure, which arises from a conditional regime-switching model, allows us to describe expected returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763564
The equity variance risk premium is the expected compensation earned for selling variance risk in equity markets. The variance risk premium is positive and shows moderate persistence. High variance risk premiums coincide with the left tail of the consumption growth distribution shifting down....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307734
We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763174
reservations about the impact of foreign speculators on both expectedquot; returns and market volatility. We propose a cross … depositary receipts country funds and other financial instruments, in an extranational market and market volatility in emerging … statistically weak. The effects on volatility and correlation are less robust.quot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774923
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783965
In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762886