This article makes a contribution towards understanding the impact of temperature fluctuations on the economy and financial markets. We present a long-run risks model with temperature related natural disasters. The model simultaneously matches observed temperature and consumption growth...

We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

The long-run risks (LRR) asset pricing model emphasizes the role of low-frequency movements in expected growth and economic uncertainty, along with investor preferences for early resolution of uncertainty, as an important economic-channel that determines asset prices. In this paper, we estimate...

We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news....

There are many possible ways of reforming the Government-Sponsored Enterprises that insure mortgages against default, including a purely public option, complete privatization or a hybrid model with private firms and public catastrophic insurance. If the government is sufficiently capable and...

Why are public-sector workers so heavily compensated with pensions and other non-pecuniary benefits? In this paper, we present a political economy model of shrouded compensation in which politicians compete for taxpayers' and public employees' votes by promising compensation packages, but some...

Research on entrepreneurship often examines the local dimensions of new business formation. The local environment influences the choices of entrepreneurs; entrepreneurial success influences the local economy. Yet modern urban economics has paid relatively little attention to entrepreneurs. This...

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega-cities over the last thirty years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed...

Cities generate negative, as well as positive, externalities; addressing those externalities requires both infrastructure and institutions. Providing clean water and removing refuse requires water and sewer pipes, but the urban poor are often unwilling to pay for the costs of that piping....

We provide an empirical evaluation of the forward-looking long-run risks (LRR) model and highlight model differences with the backward-looking habit based asset pricing model. We feature three key results: (i) Consistent with the LRR model, there is considerable evidence in the data of...