Showing 1 - 10 of 21
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
We show that firms' idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common factor in … idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than … heterogeneous-agent model. In the model, CIV is a priced state variable because an increase in idiosyncratic firm volatility raises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054863
financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run … significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further scrutiny using a rich …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776940
We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863706
In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762886
prices, including the equity premia, risk-free rate and volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101822
We propose a new modeling approach for the cross section of returns. Our method, Instrumented Principal Components Analysis (IPCA), allows for latent factors and time-varying loadings by introducing observable characteristics that instrument for the unobservable dynamic loadings. If the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920885
We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100993
We find that shocks to the equity capital ratio of financial intermediaries—Primary Dealer counterparties of the New York Federal Reserve—possess significant explanatory power for crosssectional variation in expected returns. This is true not only for commonly studied equity and government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000523
, liquidity, and volatility. Improved risk premium measurement through machine learning simplifies the investigation into economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906301