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The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time

Chinn, Menzie David - 2010

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor, both for the United States, as well as European countries. We examine the sensitivity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137763

Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification

Bayoumi, Tamim - 2007

of adjustment to these shocks are then compared to the results from US regional data. We find that the underlying shocks … are significantly more idiosyncratic across EC countries than across US regions, which may indicate that the EC will find … neighbors, experience shocks of similar magnitude and cohesion as the US regions. EC countries also exhibit a slower response to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778838

Three Current Account Balances : A "Semi-Structuralist" Interpretation

Chinn, Menzie David - 2006

) -- are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much … of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783481

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates : Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

Chinn, Menzie David - 2021

characteristics of these differing series are examined, including the exchange rates for the U.S., the euro area and several East …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222072

Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe : A Macroeconomic Assesment

Bayoumi, Tamim; Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo A. - 2021

and the US. Second, it may improve macroeconomic management by increasing the responsiveness of wages and prices to market …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223084

Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and Efta

Bayoumi, Tamim; Eichengreen, Barry - 2021

This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EC and EFTA altered the pattern of international trade. We also find evidence of trade diversion in several cases, notably that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224188

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle

Alquist, Ron; Chinn, Menzie David - 2021

the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247630

Is There a Conflict between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?

Bayoumi, Tamim; Eichengreen, Barry - 2022

. This leads us to distinguish an EC "core" (made up of Germany and its immediate neighbors) and an EC periphery (made up of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324014