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Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061815

Do Acquirers with More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less from Acquisitions?

Moeller, Sara B. - 2004

, and higher idiosyncratic volatility. The opposite result holds for acquisitions of public firms paid for with cash for … idiosyncratic volatility. We show that this evidence can best be explained by models that emphasize information asymmetries, but the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012785450

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

Baker, Scott R. - 2019

We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889473

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Baker, Scott R. - 2016

find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003270

Why Does Idiosyncratic Risk Increase with Market Risk?

Bartram, Söhnke M. - 2016

relation has roots in fundamentals as higher market risk predicts greater idiosyncratic earnings volatility and as firm …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985580

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

Baker, Scott R. - 2014

data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729

Failing the Test? The Flexible U.S. Job Market in the Great Recession

Freeman, Richard B. - 2013

The Great Recession tested the ability of the "great U.S. jobs machine" to limit the severity of unemployment in a major economic downturn and to restore full employment quickly afterward. In the crisis the American labor market failed to live up to expectations. The level and duration of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073572

Really Uncertain Business Cycles

Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065796

Corporate Deleveraging

DeAngelo, Harry - 2016

Proactive deleveraging from all-time peak market leverage (ML) to near-zero ML and negative net debt is the norm among 4,476 nonfinancial firms with five or more years of post-peak data. ML is 0.543 at the historical peak and 0.026 at the later trough for the median firm in this sample, with a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979355

Skewed Business Cycles

Salgado, Sergio - 2019

Using firm-level panel data from the US Census Bureau and almost fifty other countries, we show that the skewness of the growth rates of employment, sales, and productivity is procyclical. In particular, during recessions, they display a large left tail of negative growth rates (and during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857736