We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of …-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure … find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy …

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii …) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great … Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the …

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in … booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel …