This paper analyzes regimes of currency inconvertibility in the frame-work of a simple general equilibrium model where an officially-traded good,a smuggled good and a non-traded good are produced and consumed by residents,who hold domestic and foreign currency in their portfolios. It is shown...

An appropriate metric for the success of an algorithm to forecast the variance of the rate of return on a capital asset could be the incremental profit from substituting it for the next best alternative. We propose a framework to assess incremental profits for competing algorithms to forecast...

Previous investigators have shown that the Sharpe measure of the performance of a managed portfolio may be flawed when the portfolio manager has market timing ability. We develop the exact conditions under which the Sharpe measure will completely and correctly order market timers according to...

The model proposed by Merton(1981) to determine the value of forecasting ability is adapted to investigate whether money market fund managers successfully anticipate changes in the yield curve by adjusting the average maturity of their portfolios in the right direction. The potential economic...

This paper examines the dissemination of market timing information (signals on the overall performance of risky assets relative to the risk free rate). We consider two delivery systems. Under the newsletter delivery system market timing information is disseminated solely through newsletter....