Showing 1 - 10 of 10
mean and volatility of aggregate consumption growth, by a representative agent with a high elasticity of intertemporal … increasing the persistence of volatility fluctuations and their impact on stock prices. This calibration fits the predictive … power of stock prices for future consumption volatility, but implies much greater predictive power of stock prices for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225971
We empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth deviating from the rational forecast. Modigliani and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133237
This paper shows that the stock market downturns of 2000-2002 and 2007-09 have very different proximate causes. The early 2000's saw a large increase in the discount rates applied to corporate profits by rational investors, while the late 2000's saw a decrease in rational expectations of future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139890
This paper reviews the behavior of stock prices in relation to consumption. The paper lists some important stylized facts that characterize US data, and relates them to recent developments in equilibrium asset pricing theory. Data from other countries are examined to see which features of the US...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774976
-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. Our model has an i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763558
This paper reviews the behavior of financial asset prices in relation to consumption. The paper lists some important stylized facts that characterize US data, and relates them to recent developments in equilibrium asset pricing theory. Data from other countries are examined to see which features...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763609
This paper studies the pricing of volatility risk using the first-order conditions of a long-term equity investor who … volatility. Empirically, we present novel evidence that low-frequency movements in equity volatility, tied to the default spread …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100357
This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990's show that … idiosyncratic firm-level volatility can explain as much cross-sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding …, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763016
This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm … levels. Over the period 1962-97 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market volatility …, while the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763341
It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock … for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large … for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767711