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The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10 : Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

This paper studies the cross-country variation of the fiscal stimulus and the exchange rate adjustment propagated by the global crisis of 2008-9, identifying the role of economic structure in accounting for the heterogeneity of response. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120288

Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs

Wei, Shang-Jin; Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2021

Continental trade blocs are emerging in many parts of the world almost in tandem. If trade blocs are required to … reduction of trade barriers against non-member countries. That may not be politically feasible. On the other hand, in a world of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225933

Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2021

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311905

The Us as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account

Aizenman, Joshua - 2010

panel regressions account for not more than 2/3 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758242

China'S Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Jinjarak, Yothin; … - 2021

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have reduced their current-account imbalances as a … share of GDP to less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post … relationship between current-account balances and economic variables changed in important ways after the financial crisis. China …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224387

De Facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus : Definition and Assessment

Aizenman, Joshua - 2010

We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135878

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and short-term debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990-2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119605

What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120304

Over-Optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2011

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122217

Income Inequality, Tax Base and Sovereign Spreads

Aizenman, Joshua - 2012

This paper investigates the association between greater income inequality, de-facto fiscal space, and sovereign spreads. Using data from 50 countries in 2007, 2009 and 2011, we find that higher income inequality is associated with a lower tax base, lower de-facto fiscal space, and higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104730