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Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis : An Update

Rose, Andrew Kenan - 2010

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139743

Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area

Estrada, Ángel - 2013

We study the extent of macroeconomic convergence/divergence among euro area countries. Our analysis focuses on four variables (unemployment, inflation, relative prices and the current account), and seeks to uncover the role played by monetary union as a convergence factor by using non-euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073959

Currency Unions and Trade : A Post-Emu Mea Culpa

Glick, Reuven - 2015

In our European Economic Review (2002) paper, we used pre-1998 data on countries participating in and leaving currency unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015976

Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited

Galí, Jordi - 2015

The unemployment rate in the euro area appears to contain a significant nonstationary component, suggesting that some shocks have permanent effects on that variable. I explore possible sources of this nonstationarity through the lens of a New Keynesian model with unemployment, and assess their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018300

Expected and Predicted Realignments : The Ff/Dm Exchange Rate During the EMS

Rose, Andrew Kenan; Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2021

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217941

European Inflation Dynamics

Galí, Jordi; Gertler, Mark; Lopez-Salido, David - 2021

We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223314

Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe

Galí, Jordi; Perotti, Roberto - 2021

Growth Pact have significantly impaired the ability of EU governments to conduct a stabilizing fiscal policy and to provide … discretionary budget deficit over the period 1980-2002, using data on EMU countries and control groups of non-EMU EU countries and … other non-EU OECD countries. We do not find much support for this view. In fact, we find that discretionary fiscal policy in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239944

European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall

Rose, Andrew Kenan; Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2022

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324139

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union

Galí, Jordi; Monacelli, Tommaso - 2022

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and analyze its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324158

Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates : An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System

Eichengreen, Barry; Rose, Andrew Kenan; Wyplosz, Charles - 2021

This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange rates, interest rates, and international reserves. We develop stylized facts concerning the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227044