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Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances : 140 Years of Lessons

Jorda, Oscar - 2010

Do external imbalances increase the risk of financial crises? In this paper, we study the experience of 14 developed countries over 140 years (1870-2008). We exploit our long-run dataset in a number of different ways. First, we apply new statistical tools to describe the temporal and spatial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135415

De Facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus : Definition and Assessment

Aizenman, Joshua - 2010

We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135878

Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle

Bergin, Paul R. - 2012

Long-run cross-country price data exhibit a puzzle. Today, richer countries exhibit higher price levels than poorer countries, a stylized fact usually attributed to the Balassa- Samuelson' effect. But looking back fifty years, or more, this effect virtually disappears from the data. What is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114711

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and short-term debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990-2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119605

The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10 : Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

This paper studies the cross-country variation of the fiscal stimulus and the exchange rate adjustment propagated by the global crisis of 2008-9, identifying the role of economic structure in accounting for the heterogeneity of response. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120288

What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk

Aizenman, Joshua - 2011

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120304

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Taylor, Alan M. - 2012

In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances, the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096849

Income Inequality, Tax Base and Sovereign Spreads

Aizenman, Joshua - 2012

This paper investigates the association between greater income inequality, de-facto fiscal space, and sovereign spreads. Using data from 50 countries in 2007, 2009 and 2011, we find that higher income inequality is associated with a lower tax base, lower de-facto fiscal space, and higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104730

Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets

Aizenman, Joshua - 2013

We empirically assess the relative importance of various economic fundamentals in accounting for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging markets during 2004-2012, which encompasses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083389

The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

Taylor, Alan M. - 2013

and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments …' precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to increase. But the world then risks a third crisis of the global reserve system …, another re-run of the Triffin paradox, with an ever-growing emerging-world insurance demand loaded onto a small group of ever …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087068