Showing 1 - 8 of 8
highly sensitive to uncertainty. We briefly summarize the theory, stressing its empirical implications. We then use cross …-section and time-series data for a set of developing and industrialized countries to explore the relevance of the theory for … - affects investment as the theory suggests, but the size of the effect is moderate, and is greatest for developing countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222915
I examine the risk/return tradeoff for environmental investments, and its implications for policy choice. Consider a … risk? Using a simple model of a stock externality (e.g., temperature) that evolves stochastically, I examine the … combinations of risk and expected returns as policy objectives. Given cost estimates for reducing risk and increasing expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103046
I study irreversible investment decisions when projects take time to complete, and are subject to two types of uncertainty over the cost of completion. The first is technical uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty over the amount of time, effort, and materials that will ultimately be required to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774773
We re-examine the basic investment problem of deciding when to incur a sunk cost to obtain a stochastically fluctuating benefit. The optimal investment rule satisfies a trade-off between a larger versus a later net benefit; we show that this trade-off is closely analogous to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774956
In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing … the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778137
In recent articles, I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024159
There is a lot we know about climate change, but there is also a lot we don't know. Even if we knew how much CO2 will be emitted over the coming decades, we wouldn't know how much temperatures will rise as a result. And even if we could predict the extent of warming that will occur, we can say...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306636
We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods to determine firms' entry decisions, and we describe the resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227891