Analyses of the role of rational speculators in financial markets usually presume that such investors dampen price fluctuations by trading against liquidity or noise traders. This conclusion does not necessarily hold when noise traders follow positive-feedback investment strategies buy when...

This paper summarizes our earlier research documenting the characteristic speculative dynamics of many asset markets and suggests a framework for understanding them. Our model incorporates quot;feedback traders,quot; traders whose demand is based on the history of past returns rather than the...

This paper presents a multisector general equilibrium model that is capable of providing integrated assessments of the economy's short- and long- run responses to tax policy changes. The model contains an explicit treatment of firm's investment decisions according to which producers exhibit...

This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small...

This paper suggests that to a large extent. the increases in the value of housing and decreases in the value of corporate capital may have a common explanation, the inter- action of inflation and a nonindexed tax system. The acceleration of inflation has sharply increased the effective rate of...

Should managers, when making investment decisions, follow the signals given by the stock market even if those do not coincide with their own assessments of fundamental value? This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and examines the empirical evidence, constructing and using a new US time...

We lead off by discussing a number of theoretical reasons for expecting various relationships between a firm's unfunded pension liability and its market value. We then discuss our doubts about the methodology of earlier papers which studied the empirical relation between funding and market value...

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons....