Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …

dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …

asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal …

International consumption risk sharing studies have largely ignored their models' counterfactual implications for asset … returns although these returns incorporate direct market measures of risk. In this paper, we modify a canonical risk … variance of equity returns and the risk-free rate requires persistent consumption risk, leading to three main findings: (1 …

This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty …

, arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset … pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account …

superior. The intuition is simple: if underlying technologies are not convex, then risk-sharing can lower expected utility. The … likelihood of a bankruptcy cascade, "contagion," and systemic risk …

unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price …-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are … procyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross …

This paper studies the ability of long-run risk models to explain out-of-sample asset returns during 1931-2009. The … long-run risk models perform relatively well on the momentum effect. A cointegrated version of the model outperforms the … 1990s. When we restrict the risk premiums to identify structural parameters, this results in larger average pricing errors …

growth rates, or stochastic probability of disaster, asset pricing with stochastic risk premia or stochastic dividend growth …