shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty shocks—exogenous hazards whose welfare effects spread across industries and … markets, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial crises—as a problem of risk management. This is …

, arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset … pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account …

the firm's exposure to IST shocks and risk premia. Our calibrated model replicates: i) the predictability of returns by … returns by aggregate investment and valuation ratios; and v) a downward sloping term structure of risk premia for dividend …

fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We … refer to this measure of volatility as 'risk'. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the …

featuring consumption externalities, recursive utility, and jump risk …

Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty …. At least potentially, the influence on cost-benefit analysis of fat-tailed uncertainty about the scale of damages …

asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal …

dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …