Showing 1 - 10 of 62
This paper documents that rotation group bias -- the tendency for labor force statistics to vary systematically by … groups; both should be nationally representative samples. The rise in rotation group bias is driven by a growing tendency for … bias. We find that rotation group bias increased discretely after the 1994 CPS redesign and that rising nonresponse is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048612
; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513
This article summarizes our views on the role of an "aggregation bias" in explaining the PPP Puzzle, in response to the … counter-examples which are not empirically relevant; (ii) simulation results minimizing the extent of "aggregation bias"; (iii …) unfounded claims on the impact of measurement errors on our results; and (iv) problematic implementation of small-sample bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238972
aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. First, it clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its … applicability to the PPP puzzle. Second, the size of the bias' is shown to be much smaller than the simulations in Imbs et. al …. Finally, it is now standard to recognize that small-sample bias plagues estimates of speeds of convergence of PPP. After …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245121
A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087434
We show that a fiscal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model specification, an expansion of core government spending equal to one percent of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018304
We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated government spending and income tax changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. In a simple two-country, two-good model, we show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094626
We seek to understand how Laffer curves differ across countries in the US and the EU-14, thereby providing insights into fiscal limits for government spending and the service of sovereign debt. As an application, we analyze the consequences for the permanent sustainability of current debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110242
This paper estimates, using data from the United States and Euro Area, a two-country stochastic growth model in which both neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated across economies. The results point to large and persistent swings in productivity, both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131508
Using a small empirical model of inflation, output, and money estimated on U.S. data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and inflation targeting. The results show that monetary targeting would be quite inefficient, with both higher inflation and output variability. This is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137167