Showing 1 - 10 of 10
Herbert Hoover. I develop a theory of labor market failure for the Depression based on Hoover's industrial labor program that provided industry with protection from unions in return for keeping nominal wages fixed. I find that the theory accounts for much of the depth of the Depression and for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151056
Extending a methodology developed by Lichtenberg and Griliches (1989), we examine the extent of measurement error in two independent indicators of price change: the producer price index (PPI) and the U.S. Census Bureau's unit value relative (UVR). Estimation of factor analytic models is improved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014157352
This paper discusses four current topics in monetary policy analysis, each of which hinges on the possibility of multiple solutions in rational expectations (RE) models. In three of these cases--involving inflation forecast targeting, the zero-lower bound deflation trap, and the fiscal theory of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227186
Existing proposals to escape from a liquidity trap and deflation, including my Foolproof Way,' are discussed in the light of the optimal way to escape. The optimal way involves three elements: (1) an explicit central-bank commitment to a higher future price level; (2) a concrete action that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228748
Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. In an earlier paper, we showed that this reasoning does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133109
This paper examines, in light of the Lucas Critique, the behavior of the Phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after October 1979. It starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247016
We analyse deflationary bubbles in a model where money is the only financial asset. We show that such bubbles are consistent with the household's transversality condition if and only if the nominal money stock is falling. Our results are in sharp contrast to those in several prominent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249377
We illustrate a pitfall that can result from the common practice of assessing alternative monetary policies purely by considering the perfect foresight equilibria (PFE) consistent with the proposed rule. In a standard New Keynesian model, such analysis may seem to support the “Neo-Fisherian”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014293
The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2) credit sudden stop episodes that got exacerbated in Developed Market economies after the 2008 Lehman crisis, and appear to be associated with chronic deflation. The discussion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984757
This paper explores the effects of labor and product market reforms in a New Keynesian, small open economy model with labor market frictions and endogenous producer entry. We show that it takes time for reforms to pay off, typically at least a couple of years. This is partly because the benefits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010295