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Testing for Common Features
Kozicki, Sharon - 2010
This paper introduces a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature of a data set is common to several variables. A feature is detected in a single series by a hypothesis test where the null is that it is absent, and the alternative is that it is present. Examples are serial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760026
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Comparing Predictive Accuracy
Diebold, Francis X.; Mariano, Roberto S. - 2021
Using research designs patterned after randomized experiments, many recent economic studies examine outcome measures for treatment groups and comparison groups that are not randomly assigned. By using variation in explanatory variables generated by changes in state laws, government draft...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223006
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Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series : Some Critical Issues
McCallum, Bennett T. - 2021
This paper suggests that the relevant question concerning unit root' in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate than an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224193
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Financial Development and the Choice of Trade Partners
Chan, Jackie - 2013
What determines the choice of countries' trade partners? We show theoretically and empirically that financial market imperfections affect the number and identity of exporters' destinations. Bigger economies with lower trade costs are more attractive markets because they offer higher export...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085496
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Measuring Uncertainty
Jurado, Kyle - 2013
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075857
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Dating the Integration of World Equity Markets
Bekaert, Geert - 2008
Measuring the integration of world capital markets is notoriously difficult. For example, regulatory changes which … equity market becomes financially integrated with world capital markets. We find endogenous break dates that are very … markets are on average larger and more liquid than before; returns are more volatile and more highly correlated with the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774881
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Answering the Critics : Yes, Arch Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts
Andersen, Torben G. - 2008
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
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Trade Induced Structural Change and the Skill Premium
Cravino, Javier - 2017
We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954463
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The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity : Nature, History, and the Role of Trade
Henderson, J. Vernon - 2016
We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometers. We first document that nearly half of the variation can be explained by a parsimonious set of physical geography attributes. A full set of country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994896
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The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility
West, Kenneth D.; Cho, Dongchul - 2021
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431