Showing 1 - 10 of 537
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763699
Market impacts of Japanese macroeconomic announcements within minutes on the dollar/yen foreign exchange are analyzed … components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude … of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152611
Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the … and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227002
This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101336
Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity (UIP) using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050308
Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758602
The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the … includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the …. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225139
forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458