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Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210541
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
Using recently developed model selection procedures, we determine that exchange rate returns are driven by a two-factor model. We identify them as a dollar factor and a euro factor. Exchange rates are thus driven by global, US, and Euro-zone stochastic discount factors. The identified factors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948925
Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758602
Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the … and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227002
This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763699
This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101336
Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity (UIP) using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050308
The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the … includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the …. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225139