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Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects : String Theory Revisited

Angrist, Joshua D. - 2013

We develop a flexible semiparametric time series estimator that is then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076979

Granger-Causality and Stabilization Policy

Buiter, Willem H. - 2021

This paper aims to provide a stochastic, rational expectations extension of Tobin's "Money and Income; Post Hoc Ergo Proper Hoc?". It is well-known that money may Granger-cause real variables even though the joint density function of the real variables is invariant under changes in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219733

The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy

DiNardo, John E.; Moore, Mark - 2022

Expanding on an approach suggested by Ashenfelter (1984), we extend the Phillips curve to an open economy and exploit panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of inflation expectations. We develop this measure using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292577

Should Central Banks Care About Fiscal Rules?

Leeper, Eric M. - 2016

This essay aims to explain the nature of monetary and fiscal policy interactions and how those interactions could inform the fiscal rules that countries choose to follow. It makes two points: (1) monetary policy control of inflation requires appropriate fiscal backing; (2) European fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979774

Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession : Cross-Country Evidence

Sala, Luca - 2012

We use an estimated monetary business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and nominal … factors and reduced efficiency in labor market matching were largely responsible for the experience in the U.S. Financial … factors were also important in the U.K., but less so in Sweden and Germany. Reduced matching efficiency was considerably less …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099824

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy : A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment

Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2010

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities and unemployment, and draw its implications for the unemployment-inflation tradeoff and for the conduct of monetary policy.lt;brgt;lt;brgt;We proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759440

Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors

Billio, Monica - 2010

We propose several econometric measures of systemic risk to capture the interconnectedness among the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We find that all four sectors have become highly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139889

The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

Jordà, Òscar - 2017

The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority's control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964905

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier

Cloyne, James; Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - 2022

The fiscal “multiplier” seeks to measure how many additional dollars of output are gained or lost for each dollar of fiscal expansion or contraction. In practice, the multiplier at any point in time depends on the monetary policy response and existing conditions in the economy. Using the IMF...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306480

Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Cavallo, Eduardo A. - 2021

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311905

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