. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …:•Governments' budget forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially among the Eurozone countries, especially when they have …-optimistic during booms.•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in …

This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government …-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation … inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate …

This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of" inflation. The known characteristics … that simple averages of price data are" unlikely to produce efficient estimates of inflation. Trimmed means produce … superior estimates" of core inflation,' which we define as a long-run centered moving average of CPI and PPI" inflation. We …

As inflation approaches zero, it becomes increasingly important to examine the price indices on which monetary policy … index of the cost-of-living, is that there are likely to be biases in the index as a measure of inflation. In this paper we … inherent in the CPI as a measure of inflation--weighting bias. Utilizing a dynamic factor model we are able to compute the …

inflation rate is -.17. The corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is .71. Inflation evolved from essentially a … stochastic process of inflation, rather than a change in any structural relationship between nominal rates and expectedi nflation …. I find little evidence of inflation non-neutrality in data from the gold standard period.This contradicts the conclusion …

Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of … how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is … that the central bank might target current private-sector forecasts of inflation, either those made explicitly by …