The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These … scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro and problems of slow growth in various … unlikely, I argue here, that one or more members of the euro area will leave in the next ten years; total disintegration of the …

others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The … that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more … explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are …

their risk assessments and outcomes to those from a simple methodology that relies on publicly available market data and … forecasts the capital shortfall of financial firms in severe market-wide downturns. We find that: (i) The losses projected on … financial firm balance-sheets compare well between actual stress tests and the market-data based assessments, and both relate …

changes explain market dynamics, in an exercise similar to Shiller (1981). Given forecast revisions and price movements, we …

-study approach and yields on euro-denominated sovereign bonds, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, and corporate CDS … market segmentation effects for 50%. Stock price increases in distressed and core countries suggest that these policies also …