This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …

("wageless recovery"). Second, inflation determines the type of recovery: low inflation (below 30 percent annual rate) is … associated with jobless recovery, while high inflation is associated with wageless recovery. The paper shows that this pattern of …

whether shortages help predict inflation. Using a variety of different specifications, I find that this time-series measure of … shortages strongly predicts inflation, and contains information not captured by commodity prices, monetary aggregates, interest … rates, and other proposed predictors of inflation. This suggests that disequilibrium was an important part of the adjustment …

over the business cycle. In addition, commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and … changes in expected inflation …

Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the … crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960–1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal … deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995 …

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future … each component via a vector autoregression, in response to inflation, recession, surplus and discount rate shocks. Discount … rates, rather than deficits, account for most inflation variation. Smooth inflation that slowly devalues outstanding long …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …