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The persistence of U.S. unemployment has risen with each of the last three recessions, raising the specter that future … shocks do not systematically lead to more persistent unemployment than monetary policy shocks, so these cannot explain the … rising persistence of unemployment. Second, monetary and fiscal policies can account for only part of the evolving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073559
The Great Recession tested the ability of the "great U.S. jobs machine" to limit the severity of unemployment in a … major economic downturn and to restore full employment quickly afterward. In the crisis the American labor market failed to … live up to expectations. The level and duration of unemployment increased substantially in the downturn and the growth of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073572
New data compel a new view of events in the labor market during a recession. Unemployment rises almost entirely because … finding from new data is that a large fraction of workers departing jobs move to new jobs without intervening unemployment. I … property by invoking a new form of sticky wages or by introducing information and other frictions into the employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313246
During the recession of 2008-9, labor hours fell sharply, while wages and output per hour rose. Some, but not all, of the productivity and wage increase can be attributed to changing quality of the workforce. The rest of the increase appears to be due to increases in production inputs other than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118424
We show that sentiments - self-fulfilling changes in beliefs that are orthogonal to fundamentals - can drive persistent aggregate fluctuations under rational expectations. Such fluctuations can occur even in the absence of any exogenous aggregate fundamental shocks. In addition, sentiments also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963733
U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953502
explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro and micro data. In particular, they generate … of employment growth to TFP shocks estimated from Census data induce significant skewness, movements in volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856527
responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate … 0.5% below average. Government expenditure innovations do not contribute much either to inflation or to employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040539
Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three … primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes … in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225967
We rely on a decomposition of employment changes into job creation and job destruction components - and a novel set of … inferences: 1) The data favor a many- shock characterization of fluctuations in employment and job reallocation, 2) Theories of … employment fluctuations that attribute a predominant role to aggregate shocks must in order to fit the data involve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233431