probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the … shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic …

What is the best way to incorporate a risk premium into the discount rate schedule for a real investment project with … uncertain payoffs? The standard CAPM formula suggests a beta-weighted average of the return on a safe investment and the mean … return on an economy-wide representative risky investment. Suppose, though, that the project constitutes a tail …

We propose an empirical implementation of the consumption-investment problem using the martingale representation … simplifies the investor's task of specifying the investment opportunity set and inherits the computational convenience of the … and probabilities, which generate variation in consumption, and the consumption smoothing induced by risk aversion. Using …

The investment theory, in which the expected return varies cross-sectionally with investment, expected profitability …

hourly output and hourly revenue risk-reducing benefits from the optimal choice of locational generation capacities is … and solar energy and revenue risk are computed using the actual market portfolio and the risk-adjusted expected hourly …

fluctuations in savings on domestic investment and the current account? In the long run, we find that countries invest the marginal … to smooth consumption, but also domestic investment. To achieve this, they use foreign assets as a buffer stock …

choices and the valuation of fees and investors' payoffs. Increasing the investment allocation to the alpha …-generating strategy typically lowers the fund's risk-adjusted excess return due to frictions such as price pressure. When the manager is … via both management and incentive fees, we show that (i) the high-powered incentive fees encourage excessive risk taking …

models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally-linear stochastic processes displaying time-varying risk …. The first-order approximation is consistent with a conditionally-linear model in which risk is still time-varying but has … second-order approximation of the solution, instead, is sufficient to get this role. Moreover, risk premia, evaluated using …

and conditional heteroskedasticity of exchange rates and on the behavior of foreign exchange risk premiums. The model …