shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which …

Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …

government risk facing investors in medical innovation. This risk slows down medical innovation because investors must be …&D investors to better share the pipeline risk associated with FDA approval with broader capital markets. Using historical FDA … from offering them. Using various unique data sources, we find that FDA approval risk has a low correlation across drug …

Transaction costs in trading involve both risk and return. The return is associated with the cost of immediate … execution and the risk is a result of price movements during a more gradual trading. The paper shows that the trade-off between … risk and return in optimal execution should reflect the same risk preferences as in ordinary investment. The paper develops …

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect … quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The … across business lines. These low correlations do not corroborate systemic risk concerns. Neither is there evidence that the …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty shocks—exogenous hazards whose welfare effects spread across industries and … markets, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial crises—as a problem of risk management. This is …

-generating strategy typically lowers the fund's risk-adjusted excess return due to frictions such as price pressure. When the manager is … via both management and incentive fees, we show that (i) the high-powered incentive fees encourage excessive risk taking … sufficiently poor fund performances substantially curtail managerial risk-taking, provide strong incentives to de-leverage, and …

While the traditional view of financial innovation emphasizes the risk sharing role of new financial assets, belief …. This paper investigates the effect of financial innovation on portfolio risks in an economy when both the risk sharing and … the possibilities for risk sharing. My main result shows that financial innovation also always increases the speculative …