the dispersion of individual forecasts around these averages are interpreted as indicating "uncertainty." However …, while uncertainty is properly understood as referring to the diffuseness of the distributions of probabilities that … distributions for the same targets. Thus the former tend to understate uncertainty as measured by the latter. This is so …

We develop an integrated theory of investment, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), liquidation, and corporate savings … under uncertainty for a financially constrained firm, which features endogenous growth options, abandonment options, and …

technologies under uncertainty. Specifically, given two technologies, one with lower costs at present, but the other with greater … uncertainty in the returns to R&D, how should one allocate the R&D budget? We develop a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming … variance in the uncertainty in returns to R&D and with the skewness of the uncertainty. We also present an illustrative case …

role of secondary markets in providing opportunities for redistributing risk is made transparent and the modifications …

This paper discusses how limited ability to assess patient risk of illness and predict treatment response may affect … ability of guideline developers and clinicians to predict patient outcomes. Recognizing that uncertainty will continue to … afflict medical decision making, I apply basic decision theory to suggest reasonable decision criteria with well …

probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical …Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what … available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty shocks—exogenous hazards whose welfare effects spread across industries and … markets, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial crises—as a problem of risk management. This is …

the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty … discount rates that should be used to compute present values. The implications of uncertainty are complicated by the fact that … horizons. Correctly incorporating uncertainty in policy design is therefore one of the more interesting and important research …