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myopic politicians face political risk and prefer to extract political rents as early as possible. An implication of this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012769645
general-equilibrium theory of exchange rate determination based on the interaction between monetary policy and time … volatility shocks is consistent with the empirical evidence. Furthermore we show that risk factors and interest-rate smoothing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123697
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085495
idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066979
We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075854
and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783965
continue to hold even if the coefficient of relative risk aversion approaches zero (that is, even if the marginal utility of … income is constant so that agents are risk neutral in the conventional sense) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763700
At the zero lower bound, the central bank's inability to offset shocks endogenously generates volatility. In this setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non-existence of an equilibrium. The form of the monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002240
We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218440
a simple extension of the long-run risk model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224964