Showing 1 - 10 of 22
In the post Lehman period, the interest rate of the US dollar became low on the forward contract because of“flight to quality” to the international currency. However, in the Euro crisis, that of the Sterling pound became equally low, while the other European currencies such as the Danish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999986
This paper investigates the consequences of fiscal policies for the exchange rate. After developing a simple theory of how government financing policies should effect the exchange rate, we test it using data on the dollar/pound exchange rate. Previous analyses have concentrated mainly on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777221
High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778233
Today's value of the private ECU is driven by expectations that a European monetary authority will at some future date declare itself willing to convert the private ECU into the official basket at par. Until then, its value is not limited by any existing institutional arrangements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760150
This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation for the puzzle. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763111
An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217941
Empirical work on exchange-rate behavior under a target-zone regime has used data produced by the European Monetary System (ENS) and has found that the data contradict important predictions made by the standard target-zone model. We argue that the contradictions reflect a misinterpretation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219704
The central puzzle in international business cycles is that real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. The most popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations is that they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. We quantify this story and find that it can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220925
Several alternative measures of "effective" exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and actual construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222072
The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237565