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Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia's 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting … the campaign's end explains a large share of the mortality crisis - implying that Russia's transition to capitalism and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096856
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia's demographic and fiscal transition … under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and … Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021019
This paper develops a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financial-stability policies. There are three main points. First, from a normative perspective, the model defines the fundamental market failure to be addressed, namely that unregulated private money creation can lead to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128276
Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136545
Bayesian prior predictive analysis of five nested DSGE models suggests that model specifications and prior distributions tightly circumscribe the range of possible government spending multipliers. Multipliers are decomposed into wealth and substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120209
The federal funds rate has been stuck at the zero bound for over two years and the Fed has turned to unconventional monetary policies, such as large scale asset purchases to provide stimulus to the economy. This paper uses a structural VAR with daily data to identify the effects of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123639
The U.S. Federal Reserve used the Term Auction Facility (TAF) to provide term funding to eligible depository institutions from December 2007 to March 2010. According to the Fed, the purpose of TAF was to inject term funds through a broader range of counterparties and against a broader range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101821
This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of financial markets; I call this the core monetary model. Part 2 develops a series of calibrated examples to illustrate how the core monetary model explains the history of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107515
We consider the effects of central-bank purchases of a risky asset, financed by issuing riskless nominal liabilities (reserves), as an additional dimension of policy alongside "conventional" monetary policy (central-bank control of the riskless nominal interest rate), in a general-equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071897