have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper …Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a … was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many …

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …

At the end of 1983 Gallup polls showed that 52 percent of Americans thought that the probability of a world war in the … next 10 years was 50% or higher; by 1989 the percentage had dropped to 29%. Fear of war of this pervasiveness is bound to …-sectional relationship between saving and fear of war using responses to telephone surveys conducted during April and October of 1990. The …

believes a world war is likely is associated with a decline of 4.1 percentage points in the net private saving rate, This …This paper demonstrates that a survey-based measure of the perceived likelihood of nuclear war in a country is … nuclear war is calculated from surveys conducted in each country by the Gallup International Research Institutes. The …

nuclear plant. Nuclear power has long been controversial because of concerns about nuclear accidents, proliferation risk, and …

shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …

In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing … the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty …

I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … risk sharing. Higher uncertainty increases stock prices, risk premiums, volatility, wealth inequality and the dispersion of …