Showing 1 - 10 of 8,007
We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048614
The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2) credit sudden stop episodes that got exacerbated in Developed Market economies after the 2008 Lehman crisis, and appear to be associated with chronic deflation. The discussion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984757
This paper is a review of rational expectations models used in macroeconomic research. The purpose is to examine in some detail the differences between the models, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative models the empirical support for the models and their policy implications. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778809
This paper presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association. The tests of the joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783929
The main section of this paper discusses competing theories of aggregate supply that are currently being utilized in macroeconomic models with rational expectations. The distinction between flexible-price equilibrium models and models with nominal contracts is emphasized and three models of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321623
The recent literature on rational expectations in macroeconomic theory is surveyed here with the objective of … expectations. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the theory of martingales as it has been applied to microeconomic theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210535
, growth theory and its empirical application, issues involving unit roots in macroeconomic time series, and sticky …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224331
decisionmakers in dynamic models, and reconsiders familiar results in the theory of monetary and fiscal policy when one allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076917
This paper investigates the statistical properties of high frequency nominal exchange rates and forward premiums in the context of a dynamic two-country general equilibrium model. Primary focus is on the persistence, variability, leptokurtosis and conditional heteroskedasticity of exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138143
This paper provides a critique of the DSGE models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter-century. It argues that at the heart of the failure were the wrong microfoundations, which failed to incorporate key aspects of economic behavior, e.g. incorporating insights from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948067