Exposures of expected future depreciation rates to the current interest rate differential violate the UIP hypothesis in a distinctive pattern that is a non-monotonic function of horizon. Conversely, forward, or risk-adjusted expected depreciation rates are monotonic. We explain the two patterns...

The large asset price jumps that took place during 2008 and 2009 disrupted volatility derivatives markets and caused the single-name variance swap market to dry up completely. This paper defines and analyzes a simple variance swap, a relative of the variance swap that in several respects has...

Though the real exchange rate is a key price for most economies, our understanding of its determinants is still incomplete. This paper studies the implications of status competition in the marriage market for the real exchange rate. In theory, a rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus...

There has been a significant correlation between United States inward foreign direct investment and the United States real exchange rate since the 1970s. Two alternative reasons for this relationship are that the real exchange rate affects the relative cost of labor and that the real exchange...

This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence,...

We document the consequences of real exchange rate movements for the employment, hours, and hourly earnings of workers in manufacturing industries across individual states. Exchange rates have statistically significant wage and employment implications in these local labor markets. The importance...

It has been a well-known puzzle why the yen has not been used more in trade invoicing among Japanese exporters. Despite the yen's status as an only fully convertible currency in Asia, two patterns stand out as puzzling features of an excessively small share of yen invoicing: First, a strong...

We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China's exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but little...

I explore the behavior of asset prices and the exchange rate in a two-country world. When the large country has bad news, the relative price of the small country's output declines. As a result, the small country's bonds are risky, and uncovered interest parity fails, with positive excess returns...