Showing 1 - 10 of 41
We assess the evidence on the contribution of changes in the population age structure to the changing fortunes of youths in labor markets in advanced economies over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, and use this evidence to project the likely effects of future cohort sizes on youth labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222038
This paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249698
This paper uses the Auerbach-Kotlikoff Dynamic Simulation Model to compare the projected demographic transitions in Canada and the United States. The simulation model determines the perfect foresight transition path of an economy in which individuals live to age 75. The model's preferences are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126200
Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau’s and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347913
How will worldwide changes in population affect pressures for international migration in the future? We contrast the past three decades, during which population pressures contributed to substantial labor flows from neighboring countries into the United States and Europe, with the coming three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983437
We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century the ratio of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984130
We attempt to make inferences about the elasticity of the government's demand for specific weapons by analyzing the statistical relationship between quantity and cost revisions across the population of major weapon systems, using data contained in the Pentagon's Selected Acquisition Reports. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234349
We investigate whether local average treatment effects (LATE's) can be extrapolated to new settings. We extend the analysis and framework of Dehejia, Pop-Eleches, and Samii (2015), which examines the external validity of the Angrist-Evans (1998) reduced-form natural experiment of having two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013180
Notwithstanding the rosy short-term fiscal scenarios being advanced in Washington, the demographic transition presents the United States with a very serious fiscal crisis. In 30 years there will be twice the number of elderly, but only 15 percent more workers to help pay Social Security and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218306
This papers examines the relationship between demographic structure and the level of government spending on K-12 education. Panel data for the U.S. states over the 1960-1990 period suggests that an increase in the fraction of elderly residents in a jurisdiction is associated with a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220530