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-Expected Utility theories, we strongly reject Prospect Theory probability weighting, we support disappointment aversion if amended to …There is convincing experimental evidence that Expected Utility fails, but when does it fail, how severely, and for … Expected Utility performs well away from certainty, but fails near certainty for about 40% of subjects. Comparing non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121044
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087435
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty -- over the physical and ecological impact of pollution,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778137
I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … display a higher CAPM beta; and (d) households' portfolios change qualitatively. A log-utility investor for instance borrows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894994
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858403
We develop an integrated theory of investment, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), liquidation, and corporate savings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044990
role of secondary markets in providing opportunities for redistributing risk is made transparent and the modifications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308633
Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. Discounted expected utility … robust violations of discounted expected utility, inconsistent with both prospect theory probability weighting and models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138320
Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity—how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029035