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We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310254
and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and … about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774691
returns on nominal bonds, the covariation of realized real interest rates and real asset returns with inflation, and the … ability of nominal interest rates to predict inflation and nominal stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762745
nominal interest rates and expected price inflation, portfolio behavior is the most plausibly flexible in the short run. Since … with expected inflation. Given the importance of this adjustment for questions of both monetary theory and monetary policy … evidence that lenders' portfolio behavior does play an important role in the expected-price-inflation/nominal-interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763220
inflation on interest rates and the allocation of real capital. The model allocates a fixed private capital stock among various … versus renting. The interest rate adjusts in response to tax/inflation changes so as to maintain the aggregate demand for … tax regimes at different inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763452
short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767717
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554
This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the … episodes and find evidence that inflation and interest rate shocks had particularly strong impacts on market conditions in the … postwar era. Disinflation shocks promoted market booms and inflation shocks contributed to busts. We conclude that central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771830
We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal … consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216511
This paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates. Survey data on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217228