Showing 1 - 10 of 1,967
We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913777
Fluctuations in real GNP have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence. Using post-war...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312506
Making inferences about aggregate business cycles from regional variation alone is diffcult because of economic channels and shocks that differ between regional and aggregate economies. However, we argue that regional business cycles contain valuable information that can help discipline models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999463
This paper examines the association between inflation, monetary policy and U.S. stock market conditions during the second half of the 20th century. We estimate a latent variable VAR to examine how macroeconomic and policy shocks affect the condition of the stock market. Further, we examine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771830
GNP shock that holds consumption constant. This is intuitive: if consumption does not change, permanent income did not … change, so the change in GNP should be transitory. Similarly, a stock price shock that holds dividends constant suggests a … discount rate change, and prices display a large transitory movement in response to this shock. The paper also examines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228027
We construct shock elasticities that are pricing counterparts to impulse response functions. Recall that impulse … response functions measure the importance of next-period shocks for future values of a time series. Shock elasticities measure … the contributions to the price and to the expected future cash flow from changes in the exposure to a shock in the next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054043
This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322868
When the VAR representation of a times series has a non-fundamental representation, standard SVAR techniques cannot be used to exactly identify the effects of structural shocks. This problem is know to potentially arise when one of the structural shocks represents news about the future. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017491
What are the relative effects of anticipated vs. unanticipated monetary policy? I examine the effect of this identifying assumption on VAR estimates of the output response to money, assuming that anticipated monetary policy can have some effect on output results in much shorter and smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217605
We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986284