quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to …

Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an … explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy …. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target …

pays comparatively little attention to fitting the entire cross section at any given time and has been shown to forecast …

and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …

--they are not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing … standard examples of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast …