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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets
Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2021
. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224375
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Is Lottery Gambling Addictive?
Guryan, Jonathan - 2010
We present an empirical test for the addictiveness of lottery gambling. To distinguish state dependence from serial … correlation, we exploit an exogenous shock to local market consumption of lottery gambling. We use the sale of a winning ticket in … addictiveness in lottery gambling. They also highlight the potential effectiveness of innovations and advertising campaigns designed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757851
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Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles and the Equity Premium
Barberis, Nicholas - 2009
We argue that narrow framing, whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation, separately from other risks she already faces, may be a more important feature of decision-making under risk than previously realized. To demonstrate this, we present evidence on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767726
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Historical Political Futures Markets : An International Perspective
Rhode, Paul W. - 2008
Political future markets, in which investors bet on election outcomes, are often thought a recent invention. Such markets in fact have a long history in many Western countries. This paper traces the operation of political futures markets back to 16th Century Italy, 18th Century Britain, and 19th...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770098
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Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion
Khaw, Mel - 2018
Observed choices between risky lotteries are difficult to reconcile with expected utility maximization, both because subjects appear to be too risk averse with regard to small gambles for this to be explained by diminishing marginal utility of wealth, as stressed by Rabin (2000), and because...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911706
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The Effect of Wealth on Individual and Household Labor Supply : Evidence from Swedish Lotteries
Cesarini, David - 2015
We study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of Swedish lottery players. We find winning a lottery prize modestly reduces labor earnings, with the reduction being immediate, persistent, and similar by age, education, and sex....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011092
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Windfall Gains and Stock Market Participation
Briggs, Joseph - 2015
We estimate the causal effect of wealth on stock market participation using administrative data on Swedish lottery players. A $150,000 windfall gain increases stock ownership probability among pre-lottery non-participants by 12 percentage points, while pre-lottery stock holders are unaffected....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013170
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Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk
Bordalo, Pedro - 2015
We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038557
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Charters Without Lotteries : Testing Takeovers in New Orleans and Boston
Abdulkadiroglu, Atila - 2014
Lottery estimates suggest oversubscribed urban charter schools boost student achievement markedly. But these estimates needn't capture treatment effects for students who haven't applied to charter schools or for students attending charters for which demand is weak. This paper reports estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039631
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What Can We Learn from Charter School Lotteries?
Chabrier, Julia - 2016
We take a closer look at what we can learn about charter schools by pooling data from lottery-based impact estimates of the effect of charter school attendance at 113 schools. On average, each year enrolled at one of these schools increases math scores by 0.08 standard deviations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987136