This paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent U.S. trade deficits in the 1980s. We propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis. The first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates, in...

The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the writings of Robert A. Mundell and J. Marcus Fleming in the early 1960s. The key contribution of the model has been a systematic analysis of the role played by international capital mobility in determining the...

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework...

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, the value...

In this paper we investigate the relation between tariff changes, terms of trade changes and the equilibrium real exchange rate. For this purpose we use two models of a small open economy: (1) a three goods version of the Ricardo-Viner model; and (2) a three goods model with full intersectoral...

This paper develops and applies a model of world trade and exchange rates to analyze dynamic interaction of the current account and exchange rate. The model is designed to concentrate on the determination of trade flows, prices and exchange rates for the OECD member countries but it also covers...

A puzzle in empirical international finance is the difficulty in finding a large and negative effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade. A common explanation is the availability of hedging instruments. This paper examines the empirical validity of this explanation using data on...

This paper uses three models of a small open economy to analyze the effects of terms of trade and exchange rate changes (i.e. devaluations) on labor market adjustment. First, a three goods (exportables, importables, non-tradables), four factors model is developed and used to investigate how an...

A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive...

Do prices respond to macro shocks? Does the mere presence of international frontiers hinder trade? We revisit these questions by studying a dataset of online book prices for a number of US and Canadian retailers. We believe our dataset is well suited to this task for a number of reasons: (1)...