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This paper reexamines the debate over whether the United States fell into a liquidity trap in the 1930s. We first review the literature on the liquidity trap focusing on Keynes's discussion of "absolute liquidity preference" and the division that soon emerged between Keynes, who believed that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139970
The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121035
of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized … then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates … beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840847
long-term interest rates. Federal Reserve credibility, as evidenced by dramatic reductions in both long-term inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778289
A common view is that deposit rates are determined primarily by supply: depositors require higher deposit rates from risky banks, thereby creating market discipline. An alternative perspective is that market discipline is limited (e.g., due to deposit insurance and/or enhanced capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016009
The evidence presented in this paper leads to three conclusions about possible effects on the U.S. long-term capital. raising mechanism due to the sharp increase in interest rate volatility that has followed the Federal Reserve System's adoption of new monetary policy procedures in 1979. First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220828
)money supply and continuing price inflation, which together have kept real balances small in relation to prevailing levels of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222068
explained largely by changes in expected inflation. It presents and tests a model of expected, after-tax real interest rate … changes in anticipated inflation has been below levels anticipated by many investigators; (2) how the measured impact on … did so by an estimated 24 basis points);(4) inflation uncertainty produces no significant impact on interest rates due to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240983
The long running debate among economic historians over how long it took regional financial markets in the United States to become fully integrated should be of considerable interest to students of monetary unions. This paper reviews the debate, discusses the implications of various hypotheses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229070
and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and … about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774691