Showing 1 - 10 of 7,897
This paper documents that carry traders are subject to crash risk: i.e. exchange rate movements between high … carry trades, which tend to occur in periods in which risk appetite and funding liquidity decrease. Funding liquidity …-trade losses reduce future crash risk, but increase the price of crash risk. We also document excess co-movement among currencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036719
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988082
Cuncertainty%u201D) and changes in risk aversion (%u201Crisk%u201D for short) in the determination of the term structure, equity … prices and risk premiums. Theoretically, we introduce persistent time-varying uncertainty about the fundamentals in an … and many salient asset market phenomena. While the variation in dividend yields and the equity risk premium is primarily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780066
We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. When investors can distinguish … short- from long-run consumption risks (full information), the model generates a sizable equity risk premium only if the … propose a sparsity-based bounded rationality model of long-run risk that is both parsimonious and fully identified from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755422
Empirical studies suggest that fluctuations in the level and volatility of the world interest rate (as measured by the US treasury bill rate) affect sovereign spreads in emerging economies. We incorporate an estimated time-varying process for the world interest rate (with both level and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405012
-varying) non-Gaussian features of the structural shocks to estimate "macro risk factors" for supply and demand shocks that drive … the good demand variance risk factor. In contrast, the risk factors driving bad variance for both supply and demand shocks … the variation in yields, bond risk premiums and the term premium. While overall bond risk premiums are counter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978851
We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045286
structure of equity dividend risk premia. In the data, a robust finding is that the term structure of dividend risk premia … and expansion regimes. The unconditional population term structure of dividend-risk premia in the regime-switching model … also features a declining average term structure of dividend risk-premia if recessions are over-represented in a short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889957
of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224418
Micro- and macro-level evidence indicates that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty have a large effect on investment; the impact of uncertainty on investment occurs primarily through changes in credit spreads; and innovations in credit spreads have a strong effect on investment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055504